The Evolution of Future Science: From the Art of Prediction to Sustainability Science

Abstract

The article shows how methods for studying the future developed, starting from ancient times, when seers and oracles were revered, through utopias, conjectures and projects of the future in the era of modern times and the Enlightenment, to the emergence and development of the modern Futures Studies and Foresight proper, starting from the middle of the 20th century to the present day. The instruments of futures studies have evolved from individually nuanced techniques and the art of guessing the future to science-based methods for assessing possible, multiple and preferable futures. The fundamental differences between prognostic science and foresight are revealed. While prognostic science deals with foreseeing the most likely and unambiguous future, foresight is based on methods of scenario planning and roadmaps building for strategic management and achieving preferred images of the future. Modern foresight instruments are based on their understanding of the fundamental openness of the future, the existence of development alternatives and the construction of scenarios for future development. The most promising and proven in practice basis for futures research and foresight is the modern science of complex systems, since it is on its basis that it is possible to recognize development trends, strategic vision of remote goals and develop methods for soft and effective management of complex technological and social systems. It is this that has become the evidence-based scientific foundation for the implementation of sustainable development goals and for creating sustainable futures.